Categorized | Philosophy, Politics

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Lee Kuan Yew had 1% chance of living till 100 years old

Posted on 16 September 2013

On paper, in theory, the statistical odds are as such.

Note: The headline of the article has been changed from “Lee Kuan Yew has 1% chance of living till 100 years old” to “Lee Kuan Yew had 1% chance of living till 100 years old.”

This after a reader correctly pointed out the conditional probability of living till 100 when you are already 90 is higher than 1% — because he is still in the sample size.

——

Lee Kuan Yew turns 90 years young today on Sept. 16.

Leaving aside whether or not he is a douche or a visionary or a bit of both for doing all the things he did in his life and whether his ability to will himself contributed to his longevity, the statistical odds on paper that he will live till 100 years old is 1%.

You can check out the graph here:

100-year-odds-02

100-year-odds

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- who has written 2585 posts on New Nation.

Wang Pei can be considered a new citizen of Singapore. She has been here all her life, just that her environment's changed beyond recognition.

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  • LeeYH

    If you consider this mathematically, He has higher than 1% chance.
    The fact that he is still alive at 90, means that he has already outlived a large number of people born in his year. The correct computation involves something known as conditional probability.

    So, LKY’s probability of living to 100 is given by:
    (probability of living to 100) divided by (probability of living to 90)

    • New Nation

      Thanks for the clarification. We’ve changed the headline to better reflect the odds. We will try to explain the conditional probability shortly. Unless you want to take a stab at it here.

  • Non supporter

    Probability of LKY living to 100 is a lot higher than most other Singaporeans who do not have access to the same level of health that money / power can buy …

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